BTC-USD Tests $100,000 Support After 20% Drop From Record High
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is currently under significant pressure, trading at approximately $101,468 after a striking 20% drop from its recent October record of $126,296. This shift has triggered several tests of the psychological $100,000 support level, which has shown signs of weakening with multiple intraday attempts to rebound from around $99,000 observed this week. This downturn marks the first red October for Bitcoin in six years, reflecting a 15.7% decline over the past three months, despite a robust six-month gain of 32%. This divergence highlights growing short-term exhaustion against a backdrop of long-term optimism. Trading ranges have exhibited intraday volatility, oscillating between $98,892 and $107,269, with momentum indicators suggesting thinning market liquidity.
Technical Picture Turns Fragile: RSI and MACD Signal Weak Momentum
The technical indicators are painting a concerning picture for Bitcoin. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rests near 40.7, signaling moderate oversold conditions but lacking the necessary confirmation for a potential rebound. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands at –2,912.9 with a histogram of –773.0, indicating persistent bearish momentum. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 27.8 confirms the ongoing trend’s strength, albeit downward. Currently, prices are well below the Bollinger mid-band at $108,665, suggesting that Bitcoin is not just facing short-term challenges but is also underperforming relative to its medium-term trend. Analysts monitoring the 50-week simple moving average note that BTC has slipped below $103,700, a critical support level recalling the bull-market floor last seen in early 2024.
On-Chain Shifts: Old Whales and MicroStrategy Movements Weigh on Market
Recent on-chain data reveals a flurry of activity from large holders. More than 26,000 BTC, valued at approximately $2.5 billion, has been moved from wallets that had remained dormant for three to five years. This move, which occurred on November 7, is suspected to be linked to MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, which has a history of using Bitcoin as collateral for expansion financing. The reactivation of these long-term holdings raises concerns about strategic profit-taking by so-called “OG whales.” Additionally, the Fear & Greed Index has plummeted to 21/100, indicating "extreme fear" and suggesting that market sentiment is nearing panic levels akin to those witnessed in mid-2022. However, long-term accumulation addresses still hold roughly 13.8 million BTC, indicating that while some liquidity is rotating out of the market, significant institutional entities are not exiting entirely.
Mining Economy Under Stress: Hash Price Near $40–42 per TH/s
The Bitcoin mining landscape is feeling the strain as profitability plummets due to soaring network difficulty and stagnant prices around the $100,000 mark. Hash prices have fallen to the $40–$42 per TH/s per day range, pushing even leading miners like Bitmain’s Antminer S21 and MicroBT M66S close to breakeven at U.S. electricity rates of $0.05–$0.07 per kWh. Companies like CleanSpark and Marathon Digital Holdings are facing tough decisions and have started liquidating reserves to keep operations afloat. CleanSpark sold 97% of its October production while Marathon reported a net loss of 101 BTC from trading operations despite earning $9.6 million in interest from its loan portfolio of 10,377 BTC. The aggregate debt across the mining industry has ballooned from $2.1 billion a year ago to an eye-watering $12.7 billion, according to VanEck data.
Infrastructure Expansion: Phoenix Group Adds 30 MW in Ethiopia
Despite the challenging market conditions, investments in mining infrastructure continue unabated. The Abu Dhabi-based Phoenix Group has commissioned a new 30 MW facility in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in partnership with the state utility, Ethiopian Electric Power. This new site contributes 1.9 EH/s to its total hash rate and raises the country’s aggregate mining capacity to 132 MW, approximately one-third of the company’s worldwide output. Phoenix has ambitions to scale to 1 GW, reflecting a broader trend among miners diversifying geographically in search of cheaper hydropower. However, local electricity costs are projected to rise significantly in the coming years, pressuring profitability throughout the region.
Macro Factors and Liquidity Crunch Shape the Next Move
Market liquidity across exchanges has contracted, resembling Wintermute’s assessment that the recent trading activity is more about rotations of existing capital rather than fresh inflows. The combination of a lack of new liquidity, potential government shutdowns, and delayed U.S. economic data has stifled speculative appetite. However, macro traders are hoping for a pivot as the Federal Reserve sets the stage for quantitative easing starting December 1. This potential influx of new liquidity could play a significant role in rejuvenating risk assets. Strategists, like JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, assert that Bitcoin remains undervalued when compared to gold, predicting that aligning the digital-to-metal ratio could catapult BTC towards $170,000 in the medium term.
Dominance Dynamics: Altcoin Ratios Hint at Room for Growth
Even amidst recent turmoil, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) lingers around 61%, significantly above the historically indicative 49% threshold for cycle peaks. Analysts, including those from “Collin Talks Crypto,” view this as a positive sign that the bull cycle may still have room to extend. Historical trends from 2017 and 2021 demonstrate that BTC’s final upward surge frequently coincides with a decline in dominance as capital rotates into altcoins. Current volume statistics reveal a daily trading volume of $110.9 billion, surpassing the $78 billion average, which indicates active speculative participation, albeit primarily concentrated in major trading pairs.
Medium-Term Targets and Forecast Ranges
Quantitative models based on AI forecasts by Meyka outline prospective near- and long-term price ranges for Bitcoin. The one-month target is projected at around $142,555, suggesting a substantial 40% upside from current levels. In the long-term, a five-year projection estimates Bitcoin might reach $161,345, contingent on continued institutional accumulation and the expansion of macro liquidity. However, the short-term technical landscape presents contradictions, including an unfilled CME gap near $92,000 that aligns with the bull-market support band. Thus, there’s potential for Bitcoin to revisit that level before embarking on its next upward trajectory.
Market Sentiment: Between Capitulation and Opportunity
While fear significantly influences retail psychology, some institutional traders are preparing for a rebound as year-end approaches, anticipating shifts in Federal Reserve policy and government activities later this month. Bitcoin’s dominance above 60% coupled with a lack of euphoric retail inflows suggests this correction may act more as a cooling phase rather than a definitive market top. However, the ongoing selling pressure from miners, large-holder distributions, and leveraged liquidations must be resolved before new momentum can gain traction.
Verdict: BTC-USD Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Bullish (Hold)
Assessing on-chain flows, mining economics, and macro liquidity data shows that BTC-USD faces continued downside risk in the near term, potentially approaching the $92,000–$95,000 range. Yet, the overall cycle structure appears intact, meaning short-term traders should brace for volatility as the market tests psychological support. Long-term investors, however, might regard sub-$100,000 price levels as prime accumulation opportunities ahead of a potential influx of liquidity driven by the Federal Reserve. Given all collected data and technical validation, the outlook remains short-term bearish, medium-term neutral, and long-term bullish, with a rating of "Hold."
